Humans causing up to twothirds of Arctic summer sea ice loss, study
If our civilization belches another 700 to 1,000 gigatons of CO2 into the atmosphere, says Notz—about 20 to 25 years' worth, at current rates—the Arctic's summer ice will vanish.
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Not quite. Scientists in the study say there will still be some summer sea ice left in parts of the Arctic Ocean. What scientists refer to as the first "ice-free" Arctic summer year will occur.
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Summer Arctic sea ice extent is shrinking by 12.2% per decade due to warmer temperatures. Arctic sea ice reaches its minimum extent (the area in which satellite sensors show individual pixels to be at least 15% covered in ice) each September. September Arctic sea ice is now shrinking at a rate of 12.2% per decade, compared to its average extent.
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The graph above shows Arctic sea ice extent as of March 3, 2024, along with daily ice extent data for four previous years and the record low year. 2023 to 2024 is shown in blue, 2022 to 2023 in green, 2021 to 2022 in orange, 2020 to 2021 in brown, 2019 to 2020 in magenta, and 2012 to 2013 in dashed brown. The 1981 to 2010 median is in dark gray.
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Average Antarctic sea ice concentration in February 2023, the month when sea ice reaches its summer minimum extent. Compared to median conditions from 1981-2010 (yellow line), the most recent minimum was the lowest on record throughout the month. Map by NOAA Climate.gov, based on satellite data provided by the National Snow and Ice Data.
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The extent of summer sea ice in the Arctic can impact local ecosystems, regional and global weather patterns, and ocean circulation. In the last two decades, the minimum extent of Arctic sea ice in the summer has dropped markedly. The lowest extent on record was set in 2012, and last year's extent was tied for second - until this year's.
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Arctic summer sea ice could disappear as early as 2035. By the time a toddler graduates from high school, summer sea ice in the high North could be a thing of the past. Last month, less sea ice.
Arctic sea ice summer minimum in 2018 is sixth lowest on record
An Arctic with no summer sea ice would send dire ripple effects around the world. The bright white ice reflects solar energy away from the Earth. When this ice melts, it exposes the darker ocean.
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Arctic sea ice reaches its annual minimum at the end of summer, in September, and in 2021 it was at its second lowest extent on record. "Unfortunately it has become too late to save Arctic.
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In this work, we introduce IceNet, a new sea ice prediction system based on deep learning. The system has been trained to forecast the next 6 months of monthly averaged sea ice concentration maps.
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The ice then begins to expand again during fall and winter. The extent of area covered by Arctic sea ice is an important indicator of changes in global climate because warmer air and water temperatures are reducing the amount of sea ice present. Because sea ice is light-colored, it reflects more sunlight (solar energy) back to space than liquid.
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The ice in question is seasonal sea ice, which freezes each winter but melts in the summer. The amount of summertime sea ice has been in decline for years because of human-caused global warming.
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July 6, 2023. The longest day of summer has come and gone, and summer melt is in full swing, with the pace of ice loss overall about average for this time of year. Arctic sea ice extent for June was not exceptionally low compared to other recent years. Antarctic sea ice extent continues to track at record low values.
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The Arctic Ocean is likely to be effectively free of sea-ice by the end of summer at least once by 2050, and possibly even sooner. As the graph below shows, it's already experienced steep declines.
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This demonstrates a strong link between spring sea ice thickness and the end-of-summer sea ice extent. Antarctic recovery. Figure 5. Antarctic sea ice extent for September 19, 2022 was 18.14 million square kilometers (7.00 million square miles). The orange line shows the 1981 to 2010 average extent for that day.
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Arctic sea ice extent for September 19 2023, was 4.23 million square kilometers (1.63 million square miles). It was the sixth smallest summer minimum on record. The orange line shows the 1981 to 2010 average extent for that day. NOAA Climate.gov image, based on data from the National Snow and Ice Data Center. According to the National Snow and.
